While I'm no economist I do believe that there is a great deal of unnecessary pessimism and un-founded fear about the current state of our economy. Having said that if enough people believe we're in a recession or are about to go through one then in fact we will. It will become a self fulfilling prophecy. Actually, Franklin D Roosevelt said it best many years ago when he opined "we have nothing to fear but fear itself".
So what are the current indicators telling us?
Banking: While the banks in US and many in European have been hit hard by the sub-prime mortgage fiasco, the banking system in Canada is robust and healthy. Yes, several Canadian banks have taken some hits and losses as a result of international loans but on the whole the International Monetary Fund is very confident in the Canadian banking system.
The Canadian Dollar: Now trading near a three year low of 80 cents. The Canadian dollar is really a petro-currency these days and has traded very consistently with the world price of oil. As world prices of oil rose so did the Canadian dollar and now as the price of oil has dropped significantly so to has the Canadian dollar. This is good news for small Canadian manufacturers who export. Not so good news if your business imports raw materials or manufacturing inputs from the US. Not so good news if you are planning on vacationing in the US in the next several months and very bad news for Canadian snowbirds.
Stock Market: The Canadian stock markets have taken a significant hit. Most of this hit however has been born by oil stocks as the price of a barrel of oil has now dropped 50% since its peak in the spring of $147 per barrel. While not so good news for oil stocks and oil companies in general it is very good news for consumers and small businesses when it comes to energy prices. And if you do hold stocks, remember that you haven't lost anything until you sell. Every major downturn in the stock market has been followed by an upturn.
Unemployment: The September jobs report shows more new jobs were created last month than in any previous month
Growth: And yes, while growth has slowed, it is still higher than most other countries and the world and Canada is the only G8 country not running a deficit
So what does all this mean to the small owner managed business in Canada?
It means on balance that economic conditions are still pretty good. Hard working Canadians should continue to run their businesses the same way. Invest in training your people, continue to invest in infrastructure and continue to invest in marketing and selling your products and services. Now might be the time for a little prudent belt tightening. Cut down on the extravagant spending. Cut out the waste. Review your spending very carefully prior to making the commitment. Be confident that you will ride through these uncertain times. After all the only thing we really need fear is fear itself!